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![]() | Hi all, I am not sure if this post is useful to everyone, but given there is not a lot of info on using this sub's method in Forex, I wanted to share my setup and learnings. submitted by Maximum-Range to RealDayTrading [link] [comments] Forex is a completely different beast than stocks. If you are trading the Euro Dollar (EURUSD), not only do you need to consider if the Euro is strong or weak, you also need to consider if the Dollar is strong or weak. It is entirely possible that you go long the Euro into strength, but because the Dollar is also strong, EURUSD may go nowhere or even down. I like to flip u/HSeldon2020's adage "put the market first" into "put 2x markets first", referring to the need to analyse each currency before you can get a good view of RS/RW. I've been studying and trading relative strength using this subs RS/RW method since November 2021 and want to share my insights. I will break this post up into sections:
Creating currency strength charts in TradingViewFirst of all, we need to create a currency strength chart in TradingView. Forex, as a decentralised market, doesn't have a single tracker like the S&P500 that can be used to gauge market strength or weakness. We need to do this for every single currency pair we trade.Thankfully, TradingView makes this really easy with spread charts. https://preview.redd.it/m8cbbxkrkvu81.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=47e11138c2ab1b51f6018344545772646d6995f2 Have you ever seen the math symbols next to the search bar and wondered what they do? Maybe, if you're like me you might have clicked on them a few times, not knowing what they do, and then given up and moved on to something else. However, these symbols unlock an extremely powerful feature called spread charting. In essence, spread charting is taking one asset and re-charting it with some alteration. For example, you could create your own version of the FAANG index, but remove Netflix based on their recent earnings bomb. To do this, you would simply search for (FB+AAPL+AMZN+GOOG)/4. This will add all four symbols together and then find the mean by dividing by the number of symbols: Daily Chart for (FB+AAPL+AMZN+GOOG)/4 At the most basic level, we want to take this concept and apply it to different currencies. The goal is to create a chart that shows the strength of a single currency like the USD, EURO, CAD, etc. In FX, we already have the DXY which tracks the strength of the US Dollar. There are also other indices like EUROWCU which track the strength of the Euro. We can use these directly, or alternatively, create our own using the spread charting feature. Now, this next part gets into some math and FX basics, so either follow along or skip ahead if you're already trading FX. Currencies are quoted in pairs of: BASE|QUOTE. For example, EURUSD. EUR is the base, USD is the quote. In layman's terms, EURUSD means we: Buy EUR using USD. USDJPY means we buy USD using JPY. If we just use EURUSD, it can move in trading because: Up:
To the math, to understand the strength of a currency we add all the pairs where the currency is the base, subtract where it is the quote, and divide by the number of other currencies indexed against (7). For example in TradingView search we can enter:
A Daily Chart of the USD index using the formula above As you can see, USD has been surging since February. This tells us half of the story. If we chart another currency, like JPY, you will see it has been incredibly weak at the same time: Daily chart of JPY during the same time And then, just like magic, we know that USD = strong, JPY = weak, therefore USDJPY is probably very strong right now. It only takes a quick news search to see that USDJPY has been incredibly strong since Feb and is the current topic of Government intervention in Japan. How to interpret these chartsGreat! We now have the basics. We know that TradingView will let us chart a custom index (or we can use some existing ones like DXY).It can be useful at this point to pull up a few charts into a split-screen and use this as a sort of screener to see what is strong/weak today. I like to also include the Ichimoku Cloud for easier trend identification: Quad screen comparing EUR, USD, GBP, and CAD It can be a lot to take in, so I usually prefer screening just two currencies, or using one of the RS/RW screeners I'll talk about soon. To make things clearer, let's zoom in on EUR and GBP today: EUR and GBP strength on 1H chart EUR and GBP strength on 5m chart We can now clearly see that EUR has been heading up since 2am, while GBP has been heading down since 2am. What does this mean? Well, we already know this means that the EURGBP is probably trending higher. Let's take a look: EURGBP 5m chart Yes! We've got a beautiful uptrend intraday on EURGBP. What we can do now is monitor the charts and look for instances where the GBP strength chart breaks down bearish again or EUR continues moving up. Both will be a strong signal that we can start to see some movement in the pair EURGBP. It also goes without saying that we can use the traditional teachings from the wiki in the same way, with a slight modification:
The good news is we can automate a lot of this hard work with the next section. Running RS/RW scans on currenciesJust like many of the RS/RW indicators that have cropped up for trading vs SPY, you can use this same technique for trading currencies. The difference is now that we've done some charting, we actually have a reliable index to use.I use the incredible screener created by squattingsquid (https://www.reddit.com/RealDayTrading/comments/sgii13/rrs_custom_stock_screener_for_tradingview_top_100/) to load up currency pairs vs my new base charts. It's as simple as loading up the script, doing the usual setup for the tables, but instead of SPY as the comparison symbol, we use the spread chart symbol from earlier: An example setup for USD pairs Screener output I can now see, in one quick glance, that if I wanted to trade a USD pair right now, USDCHF is probably the strongest on the long side. If I pull up USDCHF intraday, it has made a fresh move up and is consolidating. Maybe it will break upwards? Who knows. But if the USD strength chart starts showing some bullish moves (in the same way we would wait for SPY to make a move first in stocks), then USDCHF could be a good long position: https://preview.redd.it/34cgcvkatvu81.png?width=1633&format=png&auto=webp&s=68bb48f0ebcef631d043f0188f7abf57f1a1c0f4 Using the screener does remove some of the complexity of analysing two base markets all the time. You can simply look for the strongest/weakest pair for USD, watch the USD strength chart, and then take a trade when USD makes a move in either direction. You can employ your usual moving averages etc. on the 5m chart to capture an entry edge. From this point on, it's very similar to the wiki. You can even load up a relative strength indicator and use the strength chart as the comparison input. It really is just as flexible as normal RS/RW trading with stocks: USDCHF with the Real Relative Strength indicator using my USD strength symbol as a comparison I often overlay the charts with the screeners in the top so I always have a good video of what is RS/RW at any given time Thoughts/considerationsIf you've read this far, thank you. Setting up a Forex version of this subs methods has been a big project of mine for the past few months. I find Forex to be very interesting to trade and do enjoy reading about monetary policy and economic outputs. It's not for everyone!In no way do I feel like I have "cracked the case" on how to trade FX using RS/RW, but I hope this does help anyone who shares my interest give it a shot or build on the idea. If nothing else, I have built a deep understanding of how Forex markets operate by simply observing the strength and weaknesses of different currencies and extrapolating this into trading pairs. The final note I want to make is to really re-emphasize how different FX is to stocks. If the S&P500 gaps up, you could randomly pick any constituent stock and there is a likelihood that it is up too. If the USD strength chart gaps up, any USD pair could actually be down. It doesn't matter what the USD is doing if another currency is melting down. FX really is a different beast. However, if you take a "2x markets first" approach you will quickly see how the methods of u/HSeldon2020 can apply in Forex, and presumably, in commodities and Crypto too. I haven't even touched on some of the other parallels such as the importance of a strong daily chart, but trust me, everything in the wiki is applicable in Forex as long as you get your comparison symbol right. I think this method comes close to replicating for Forex what SPY is to stocks. If there are any other Forex lurkers in this sub, I would love to collaborate and really build on this to create a sort of Forex version of the RS/RW rules. I honestly don't know if there is any interest or demand for this, so I am keen to hear what everyone thinks. |
![]() | Thank you everyone for the positive reception to my post yesterday where I outlined my setup in Forex for using RS/RW. The first post is here: https://www.reddit.com/RealDayTrading/comments/u8nyts/how_to_chart_relative_strength_in_forex/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 submitted by Maximum-Range to RealDayTrading [link] [comments] To follow it up, I wanted to share something practical to show how it all comes together, and how the concepts of RS/RW can be applied in Forex. My intention is to keep testing this approach, incorporate some newer ideas such as algo lines, and help build a set of Forex resources that can help the community. I'll assume you've read my first post as I walk through today's setup on the US Dollar. ChartsQuad Screen Split. DXY at the top with RS/RW screener, followed by USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD in the bottom three screens.My basic setup today consisted of the DXY (US Dollar Index — we can call it our Forex version of SPY for USD pairs) and three USD pairs that I like to trade. The US Dollar has been heading higher recently, and coupled with Powell's comments last night, there is some bullish energy in the market. If we just focus on the DXY on the daily, it is definitely more bullish than bearish: DXY Daily Chart The question is, if we wanted to trade the Dollar, what would be the best pair? Enter RS/RW. DXY TodayIf you were up early this morning you would know and see a few things:
DXY 5m chart showing strong trend line break (wicks connecting the line don't show up well on this image, sorry) If we have a bullish market bias, plus a bullish intraday movement, we could start to consider what pairs to trade. At the moment the trend line breaks, the RS/RW screener makes it really easy to see where our best trade could be... USDCAD: USDCAD showing the most strength If we cross over to USDCAD, we can see it is looking quite good: USDCAD 5m chart at the time of DXY breakout USDCAD is also showing HA continuation on the 5m and 4H charts: USDCAD 5m showing HA continuation in this new move USDCAD also showing HA continuation on the 4H chart So, overall USDCAD has some bullish confluences, coupled with the relative strength over the other pairs. Let's see how the day is tracking 8 hours later: ResultsAll pairs compared to DXY so far today If we take a look what happened, DXY continued heading higher. All three pairs also headed higher, but the RS/RW is pivotal to the risk profile of each possible trade. Notice that after the initial leg up, there was some consolidation. For USDCAD, this consolidation was tight. In contrast, the consolidation on USDJPY is very messy. If you were practising good risk management you could've easily been stopped out on this trade, despite being correct on the direction. Here they are side by side: USDCAD (left) and USDJPY (right) with the same time highlighted in the rectangle If you entered at the highs of that consolidation you would have an approx. 10 pip max drawdown on USDCAD, vs 22 pip max drawdown on USDJPY. The final leg up then ended up being +38 pips vs +25 pips respectively. In the highly leveraged world of FX, these pip numbers are significant. The USDCAD trade has a much better risk-adjusted return than if you traded USDJPY or even USDCHF. Next stepsHopefully this gives you an example of using a market-first approach to Forex coupled with RS/RW. You could make this trade even better by looking at the strength of CAD and JPY on their own, as I discussed in my original post. This would give you a holistic "2x markets first" approach that can be very powerful.I don't think the method has been perfected for Forex yet, but I do think there is something here, and I do believe it is possible to apply the wiki concepts to trading currencies. If you have any other ideas, please let me know. I would love for us to expand on this concept. |
![]() | I. Big PictureLong term outlook -- neutral bearish; SPY is still in a bear market, but well off the LoY with inflation concerns being somewhat moderated. The latest CPI report (Dec-13) has the annual inflation rate at 7.1% beating the expected figure of 7.3%. There is no reason to be particularly bullish until SPY breaks out of the 200-day SMA with both volume and follow through. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-cpi-inflation-rises-71-over-last-year-141704528.html long term down-trend with lots of overhead resistance Short term outlook -- neutral bullish; seasonal strength lends my bias toward the bullish side, but this all depends on the market reaction to the FOMC statement, and potential follow through with volume. close below 100-day SMA would be constructive bearishness SPY support -- $392 (100-day SMA) SPY resistance -- $410.49 (yHoD) II. Setup/Intraday FundamentalsAll eyes were on MRNA and MRK yesterday, with a trial for an experimental cancer vaccine using mRNA technology showing promising results. https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/health/mrna-cancer-vaccine-study/index.html Through massive buying volume, MRNA was able to preserve most of its gains on Dec-13 against strong intraday market selling off of the CPI gap up. MRNA strong most of the day, but showed exhaustion in the last 2 hours falling below VWAP while SPY consolidated near the $402 level The setup coming into today was 2nd day continuation of the news catalyst, with intraday relative strength against SPY against a cautiously bullish market backdrop. SPY appeared to be mildly bullish as it was trending higher above VWAP, but being the FOMC day, I expected some reverting to the mean. Without the extremely bullish catalyst behind MRNA, I would likely have not taken this trade. Entry III. Technical AnalysisTrendlines: (resistance) trendline connecting Aug-10-2021 (ATH) and Sep-10-2021 has been brokenSimple Moving Averages (20/50/100/200): above all of these Compression break: range established from Nov-14-2022 to Dec-12-2022 has been broken to the upside during the previous session Market structure: broke through yHoD with a backtest and reject to continue the upward trend at 10:35 Horizontal levels: yHoD will be used as intraday support and mental stop loss, with the LoD being the hard stop Heikin-Ashi candles: bullish continuation on the daily, and bullish continuation on the 5-minute https://preview.redd.it/7krvx83vm06a1.png?width=2225&format=png&auto=webp&s=e219a2d840e5edd2b05b300def5e211fcbe98968 IV. Trade StrategyBecause this is a FOMC day, I must be out of the trade well before 14:00. Therefore, I will be passive with setting profit targets and let price action guide my exit. This would have been an A+ trend-following setup if there was no FOMC scheduled today.Reasons to exit: (a) the orderly price action ceases and the stock enters compression (conservative; I do not want to be holding positions unnecessarily) (b) stock makes a comparatively large move (sell into strength, wait for re-test before potential re-entry) (c) MRNA loses Relative Strength (d) SPY makes a large mean reverting move toward VWAP and takes MRNA down with it (e) any news that jeopardizes the news catalyst (for example, retraction of the published results) V. Trade ManagementI scaled in to the position as MRNA was continuing its uptrend and SPY making tenuous new highs.11:17:17 buy $214.83 quarter position 11:20:52 buy $215.42 quarter position 11:26:36 buy $216.13 half position I scaled out of the position owing to what I perceived to be exhaustion of buying pressure, with the 11:30 candle and 11:35 candle producing a balance, and Heikin-Ashi producing its first doji since 10:05. 11:38:45 sell $216.03 half position 11:42:04 sell $216.32 half position Exit VIII. Trader psychology checkWith the FOMC on mind, I was happy with what was a roughly $1 scalp. At the time, I exited based largely on gut feeling. VIII. Walk-away analysis and reviewhttps://preview.redd.it/3v8p8sw4z06a1.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc94bbbc590cea3e34e39bfb7fc5c3d88cf0acd2It is evident that my exit was very close to the actual HoD (picking the top), and that in hindsight the trade was managed decently. However, I am unsure as to whether the entering the setup was correct in the first place, since the SPY itself was an "inside bar" and it could've easily reverted back to VWAP (traders risking off before the FOMC). More trades during "dead before the Fed" conditions must be taken to explore whether taking 2nd day trend continuation trades such as this will produce a positive return. Alternatively, a better entry would have been the compression break at 10:35, where the stock broke through the yHoD, backtested it, and bounced off of it to continue in the direction of the prevailing trend. a better entry at the break and re-test of the yHoD Tags: #news_catalyst #continuation #D1_trendline_break_bullish #D1_compression_break_bullish #SPY_up #FED_day #groundbreaking_research #new_product_potential #analyst_upgrade |
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